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Salutations, Olio aficionados! 👋
Midweek greetings to all, as we unveil the 237th chapter of Weekly Olio—a delightful concoction of laughter, insight, and a sprinkle of mystery. Within these pages, you'll discover a handpicked selection of fascinating finds from the vast realms of the internet.
Keep your eyes peeled for this week’s Publisher’s Parmesan, arriving this Sunday!
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The Quote 💭
“Be polite, be professional - but have a plan to kill everyone you meet.”
The Tweet 🐦
If modernization becomes software-driven instead of services-driven, IT service firms could lose margins, but let's see how it pans out!
The Infographic 💹
“Walled world” - the uneven distribution of population and wealth worldwide.
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The Short Read 📝
Top 100 Gen AI Consumer Apps: March 2026 - by a16z
Three years into tracking generative AI adoption, the consumer landscape has matured significantly. ChatGPT remains the undisputed leader, with 900 million weekly active users—over 10% of the global population—and 2.7x more web traffic than the second-place Gemini. However, competitors are closing the gap: Claude is growing paid subscribers at 200% YoY, while Gemini accelerates at 258% YoY, fuelled by breakout products like Nano Banana and Veo 3.
The platforms are pursuing divergent strategies. OpenAI positions ChatGPT as a consumer super-app with 85+ transaction-focused integrations (travel, shopping, food, health), testing ads and planning a "Sign in with ChatGPT" identity layer. Anthropic targets AI power users with Claude, emphasizing professional tools like financial terminals and developer infrastructure. The ecosystem reveals minimal overlap: only 41 apps (11%) appear in both platforms' catalogs. This suggests the competition may resemble mobile OS wars rather than search wars—two distinct platforms building trillion-dollar ecosystems with different philosophies. Lock-in through context, connectors, and workflow integration will prove decisive in shaping the market. Read more…
The Long Read 📜
Bayes and Base Rates - by Michael J. Mauboussin
This Morgan Stanley article explores how Bayes' Theorem can improve investment decision-making by combining historical base rates with new evidence. The authors argue that investors must establish initial beliefs grounded in historical data, then update these beliefs as new information emerges. The article demonstrates this framework through two compelling case studies. First, OpenAI's projected 2025 revenue of $145 billion represents a 108% compound annual growth rate—an extraordinarily unlikely outcome when compared to historical base rates, where no public company has achieved such growth for five consecutive years. Second, Oracle's cloud business forecast of $166 billion by 2030 similarly strains credibility against historical precedent.
The key insight is that base rates aren't immutable; they change as markets evolve. However, growth rates typically shrink as companies scale, and larger companies exhibit lower growth volatility. The article emphasizes that while judgment remains essential for fundamental analysis, applying Bayesian thinking enables investors to gather information more efficiently and assess forecast plausibility against historical context. This approach balances conviction with intellectual humility, holding beliefs firmly yet remaining open to revision as evidence accumulates. Read more…
How Jennifer Anniston’s LolaVie brand grew sales 40% with CTV ads
The DTC beauty category is crowded. To break through, Jennifer Anniston’s brand LolaVie, worked with Roku Ads Manager to easily set up, test, and optimize CTV ad creatives. The campaign helped drive a big lift in sales and customer growth, helping LolaVie break through in the crowded beauty category.
That’s all for this week. If you enjoyed this edition, we’d really appreciate if you shared it with a friend, family member or colleague.
We’ll be back in your inbox 2 PM IST next Wednesday. Till then, have a productive week!
Disclaimer: The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not necessarily to the author's employer, organization, committee or other group or individual.