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The Calculus of Value
Normal, Retention, Welfare Spending, and Changes in the Modern World
Peeyush Jain & Mohit Garg
September 24, 2025
In partnership with
Salutations, Olio aficionados! 👋
Midweek greetings to all, as we unveil the 189th chapter of Weekly Olio—a delightful concoction of laughter, insight, and a sprinkle of mystery. Within these pages, you'll discover a handpicked selection of fascinating finds from the vast realms of the internet.
Keep your eyes peeled for this week’s Publisher’s Parmesan, arriving this Sunday!
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The Quote 💭
“If you are always trying to be normal, you will never know how amazing you can be.”
The Tweet 🐦
WHY RETENTION IS SO HARD FOR NEW TECH PRODUCTS
I’ve been staring at retention curve data for 15-plus years now.
I was a founder, a product manager, and now a VC. And at Andreessen Horowitz, I end up meeting hundreds of startups each year, many of them through our a16z speedrun
— andrew chen (@andrewchen)
2:19 PM • Sep 9, 2025
This is a long article from Andrew Chen talking out retention - the holy grail for all tech products and why it is a very very hard problem to solve. Relevant insights for founders, investors and product managers.
The Infographic 💹
Shrinking industrial complex supporting a growing welfare system. It will be interesting to see how it ends. 🤔
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The Short Read 📝
The World in Which We Live Now - by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Nicholas Taleb was a speaker at the Annual Meeting of the Ron Paul Institute in 2025. This is a speech he delivered at this meeting. He reflects on how today’s world is being shaped by concentration, dynamics and scale. He lays down seven key observations on how the world is evolving at this point in time.
First is the spread of connectivity giving rise to increased concentration across fields. Second is the fact that we continue to misread history by thinking of it as a static field. This leads of ignorance of growth rates and the resulting compounding across decades. Mature economies struggle with limited room for expansion while developing economies continue to enjoy headroom for growth. He goes on to cover five more observations shaping the modern world. Read the full article to find out. Read more…
The Long Read 📜
The Calculus of Value - by Howard Marks
Howard Marks is back with another stellar memo - no way we could let it go. This time, he focusses on something that is fundamental, almost atomic, to the field of finance - how to assess value of an asset. Mark argues that value and price are two distinct variables : value lies in an asset’s fundamentals—current and future earnings, management, competitive advantages, tangible and intangible assets—while price is simply what one pays.
Investor psychology drives short-term price fluctuations more than fundamentals, creating a "tug-of-war" between optimists and pessimists that can lead to prices deviating from intrinsic value. Over time, prices tend to revert to their true value, but mismatches can persist, leading to bubbles or crashes. Marks warns that the current U.S. market has high valuations, exuberant investor sentiment, and overpriced equities. Despite supportive fundamentals, he finds the situation "worrisome" and advises a defensive approach: reducing speculative assets and favoring higher-quality investments until valuations normalize. Read more…
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That’s all for this week. If you enjoyed this edition, we’d really appreciate if you shared it with a friend, family member or colleague.
We’ll be back in your inbox 2 PM IST next Wednesday. Till then, have a productive week!
Disclaimer: The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not necessarily to the author's employer, organization, committee or other group or individual.
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